Recently published are the results of a nationwide county-bycounty survey of voting patterns in presidential elections, beginning in 2012. Aside from the Democratic win in 2020, the overall trends are unmistakable. The findings reveal a shift favoring the Republican Party. Patterns also show a slide among Democratic voters.
Writes one analyst: “The trends resemble a United States charging in opposite directions.” Others say we are witnessing a transformation in American politics.
Sources are the Associated Press and Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. They were analyzed and published in the May 11 issue of The New York Times. Space allows for key points, only.
For decades the Democratic Party claimed promotion of working people and as the Party of necessary change. The U.S. has 3,244 counties. In working class counties long favorable to Democrats, Republicans are making gains. The GOP has increased its share of votes in 1,433 counties. Democrats have expanded their share in only 57 of 3,100 counties.
Almost exclusively, Democratic counties are concentrated in the nation’s wealthiest and most educated pockets. At the same time, Republican margins have grown ever higher in the reddest and more rural of the red states.
Here’s a closer look at the 2024 election. Fourh undred-thirty-five counties voted more Democratic by a margin larger than 8.8 percent. On the other hand, 2,678 counties became more Republican by an average of 13.3 percent.
The U.S. is dividing by income. Only onefifth of the counties moving to the Republican column had a median income above $100,000. The opposite held for Democrats. In 18 of 57 counties voting Democratic, nearly a third had a median household income above $100,000.
Levels of education are influential. In counties where Candidate Trump increased his share of the vote, not one held a majority of adults with a college degree. Conversely, in not one of the counties favoring the Vice President Kamala Harris, was the collegeeducated share of the adult population smaller than 20 percent.
The traditional Democratic base is wavering. Black voters have long favored Democrats. Yet, President Trump made inroads among them in the last three elections — even in heavily Black counties. For example, more counties with a majority of Black voters shifted toward the Republicans (58) than the total of counties (57) that trended Democratic.
Those analyzing the data conclude the President’s support continued to grow in each of the six most predominately Black counties. In the past three elections, Democrats increased their share of Black votes in only two majority- Black counties — Rockdale and Douglas outside Atlanta.
The same trend is evident in Latino communities. In 67 counties with a majority Hispanic population, 66 voted more Republican than in 2012.
In sum, say the analysts, erosion of the Democratic base is accelerating. Moreover, their strongest areas are becoming geographically restricted. Only a few isolated areas have moved sharply Democratic. Only nine counties by a margin of 25 points, and six of those nine are in the Atlanta metro area.
Democratic bastions are best found in the great blue cities and along the eastern seaboard.
Ken Martin, the new Democratic National Committee Chairman said: “The majority of Americans now believe the Republican Party best represents the working class and the poor. The Democratic Party has become the party of the wealthy and the elites.”
• Retired attorney Jim Thomas lives in Atlanta. Email jmtlawyerspeak@ yahoo. com
