Dark events in 2026 rose and multiplied. They included waves of scorching heat, massive drought, great rivers running dry, warfare on numerous fronts, migrations of desperate people, the disruption of critical oil supply routes and persistent political turmoil left and right.
Pessimism has spread. A PEW research study found that 74% of Americans believe their children will be worse off than their parents. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index revealed only 24% of the population view conditions as good or excellent.
That’s the bad news. Some good news favors a brighter outlook.
First, the U.S. economy is strong. With only 3% of world population Gross Domestic Product for 2026 is estimated at $32.4 trillion, one quarter of total world economic output, the largest on the planet and 55% larger than China’s. In 1900, the average American’s share of the nation’s economic output was around $200 per year. Today it approaches $85,000 to $90,000.
Second, people are living longer. Life expectancy in 2024 rose to 79, a new record. Age-adjusted mortality rates have fallen by 17% since 2000 and 30% since 1980. Death rates from heart disease have declined 39% since 2000 and 62% since 1980; from cancer by 31% since 2000 and 33% since 1980.
Third, crimes and criminal activity are falling. The Council on Criminal Justice reports that in the first half of 2026 homicides fell another 18%. Data from the FBI show a substantial decline of criminal activity in the United States, in particular violent crimes and homicide. Carjackings are down by 47%.
Fourth, the rights and opportunities of American women have steadily expanded. After decades of struggle and agitation, women gained the right to vote in 1920 with passage of the 19th Amendment. They now have rights and privileges their grandmothers could not imagine. As late as 1950 fewer than one woman in three were members of the workforce. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that by 2015 73.5 million women were working, 46.8% of the labor force.
Fifth, worldwide more people have access to clean water. In 2015 68% of the population had access. By 2024 that figure had risen to 74%. Still too low but improving.
Sixth, people living on three dollars or less per day are deemed to be in extreme poverty. The World Bank reported the number of povertystricken people has declined by two thirds since 1990.
Seventh, the war against a collection of deadly diseases has been a success. Smallpox, as the result of global vaccinations, has been completely eradicated. Polio was reduced by 99%. Other diseases which routinely killed or disabled millions have become rare or preventable. UNICEF estimates that the global under-five mortality rate fell by 60% between 1990 and 2024. Put another way, the risk changed from approximately 1 child in 11 dying before age five in 1990 to about 1 in 27 in 2024.
Eighth, we still see and read of earthquakes, floods, famines and loss of life. But according to studies by the United Nations, the per-person risk of dying in a natural disaster has steadily declined since mid-20th century. Time was when natural disasters would kill tens of thousands, even millions. That no longer holds. Thanks to better weather forecasting, stronger buildings, faster transportation and markedly better communications.
Ninth, no one can ignore modern life’s conveniences that did not exist at turn of the 20th Century: electricity, cars and trucks, television, the internet and on and on. Ninety-four percent of the population own mobile phones.
President Franklin Roosevelt said, “The trend of civilization is upward.” The foregoing evidence is proof.
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Aug.28; The New York Times, Aug.30; Open AI (2026) ChatGPT.
• Retired attorney Jim Thomas lives in Atlanta. Email jmtlawyerspeak@ yahoo. com
Comments